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4 © Lehmann 2016 | Advocacy for the Compact
become ever more resource-intensive. The needs, waste water and surplus heat generated
urbanisation process, constantly regenerated, by buildings).
dramatically affects all energy, water and
material consumption. For these reasons, the Mega Trends Shaping Our Urban Futures:
urban perimeter block as housing type has New City Typologies Emerging
many advantages: apartments share a circu-
lation system, construction and wall spaces, and According to many experts, the impact of
one can get easily good thermal performance humanity on the earth is already overshooting
and save construction materials by building the earth’s capacity to supply humanity’s needs
blocks 3 to 10 storeys high. My research over − exceeding the carrying capacity − which is an
the last decade has shown that energy use can unsustainable position (Rees 2006). As the
drop by up to 30 per cent if people move from Global Footprint Network (2013) points out,
free-standing suburban houses to inner-city humanity is now using ecological resources and
apartments in perimeter blocks (Lehmann services at a rate it would take over 1.5 Earths
2010). to renew. We are on track to require the
resources of two Earths well before 2050.
Cities are the single largest contributor to Today, more than 80 per cent of the world’s
climate change. In the last century, the avail- population lives in countries that use more than
ability of cheap fossil fuels has been a driving the ecosystems within their borders can
force for rapid urbanization and the shaping of provide and renew. These ‘ecological debtor’
urban form. It has also enabled the increase of countries either deplete their own ecological
urban footprints and the development of car- resources or get them from elsewhere. For
dependent suburbs. Today we recognize that, in instance, Japan’s residents consume the
order to deal with the new set of challenges, a ecological resources of 7.1 Japans; it takes 4
shift in scale and ambition is necessary, from Italys to support Italy, while Egypt uses the
individual-building scale to entire urban pre- ecological resources of 2.4 Egypts. Not all
cincts and neighbourhoods, with a renewed countries demand more than their ecosystems
focus on public space. Thus, the challenges vary can provide, but even the reserves of ‘ecological
from region to region: in Europe, the creditors’ like Brazil, Indonesia and Sweden are
development task is less about building new, shrinking over time. We can no longer sustain a
but rather about improving and upgrading the widening gap between what the environment is
existing urban fabric. European cities have been able to provide and how much our infra-
built and their form is deeply rooted in a past structure, economies and lifestyles require. The
that often freezes it in time and place. need to move to low carbon climate-resilient
city planning is obvious.
On the other hand, in the US, Canada and
Australia, the issue is to overcome car In 2007 and 2013, the pivotal IPCC reports
dependency and the legacy of sprawl (Hall and pointed out that human-induced greenhouse
Tewdwr-Jones 2009). The situation is quite gas emissions are mainly a result of burning
different again in the Asia-Pacific and Middle- fossil fuels and land-use changes, but that there
East regions, where building entire new cities are also a range of other indicators impacting
from scratch is an option. For instance, with on emission levels (for instance, the link with
China’s rapid urbanisation process, we find new population and economic growth, consumption,
concepts of city emerging, allowing for radical energy and water usage, industrial production,
new thinking about urban precincts and waste management, food supply, land-use plan-
architectural group forms and advocating for an ning, transport patterns and policy decisions,
end to context as the all-determining factor. which are all critical). In the last 20 years
Here, the future is not about what buildings progress in the area of international climate
look like, but how groups of buildings support policy has been modest at best. Annual green-
the public realm, perform and interact, and how house gas emissions have increased by over one
they connect with each other to balance their third since 1992 and keep rising. Acute conflicts
operational needs (for instance, the energy of interest among industrialized, emerging and
Science Target Inc. www.sciencetarget.com