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4 © Lehmann 2016 | Advocacy for the Compact

become ever more resource-intensive. The          needs, waste water and surplus heat generated
urbanisation process, constantly regenerated,     by buildings).
dramatically affects all energy, water and
material consumption. For these reasons, the      Mega Trends Shaping Our Urban Futures:
urban perimeter block as housing type has         New City Typologies Emerging
many advantages: apartments share a circu-
lation system, construction and wall spaces, and  According to many experts, the impact of
one can get easily good thermal performance       humanity on the earth is already overshooting
and save construction materials by building       the earth’s capacity to supply humanity’s needs
blocks 3 to 10 storeys high. My research over     − exceeding the carrying capacity − which is an
the last decade has shown that energy use can     unsustainable position (Rees 2006). As the
drop by up to 30 per cent if people move from     Global Footprint Network (2013) points out,
free-standing suburban houses to inner-city       humanity is now using ecological resources and
apartments in perimeter blocks (Lehmann           services at a rate it would take over 1.5 Earths
2010).                                            to renew. We are on track to require the
                                                  resources of two Earths well before 2050.
Cities are the single largest contributor to      Today, more than 80 per cent of the world’s
climate change. In the last century, the avail-   population lives in countries that use more than
ability of cheap fossil fuels has been a driving  the ecosystems within their borders can
force for rapid urbanization and the shaping of   provide and renew. These ‘ecological debtor’
urban form. It has also enabled the increase of   countries either deplete their own ecological
urban footprints and the development of car-      resources or get them from elsewhere. For
dependent suburbs. Today we recognize that, in    instance, Japan’s residents consume the
order to deal with the new set of challenges, a   ecological resources of 7.1 Japans; it takes 4
shift in scale and ambition is necessary, from    Italys to support Italy, while Egypt uses the
individual-building scale to entire urban pre-    ecological resources of 2.4 Egypts. Not all
cincts and neighbourhoods, with a renewed         countries demand more than their ecosystems
focus on public space. Thus, the challenges vary  can provide, but even the reserves of ‘ecological
from region to region: in Europe, the             creditors’ like Brazil, Indonesia and Sweden are
development task is less about building new,      shrinking over time. We can no longer sustain a
but rather about improving and upgrading the      widening gap between what the environment is
existing urban fabric. European cities have been  able to provide and how much our infra-
built and their form is deeply rooted in a past   structure, economies and lifestyles require. The
that often freezes it in time and place.          need to move to low carbon climate-resilient
                                                  city planning is obvious.
On the other hand, in the US, Canada and
Australia, the issue is to overcome car           In 2007 and 2013, the pivotal IPCC reports
dependency and the legacy of sprawl (Hall and     pointed out that human-induced greenhouse
Tewdwr-Jones 2009). The situation is quite        gas emissions are mainly a result of burning
different again in the Asia-Pacific and Middle-   fossil fuels and land-use changes, but that there
East regions, where building entire new cities    are also a range of other indicators impacting
from scratch is an option. For instance, with     on emission levels (for instance, the link with
China’s rapid urbanisation process, we find new   population and economic growth, consumption,
concepts of city emerging, allowing for radical   energy and water usage, industrial production,
new thinking about urban precincts and            waste management, food supply, land-use plan-
architectural group forms and advocating for an   ning, transport patterns and policy decisions,
end to context as the all-determining factor.     which are all critical). In the last 20 years
Here, the future is not about what buildings      progress in the area of international climate
look like, but how groups of buildings support    policy has been modest at best. Annual green-
the public realm, perform and interact, and how   house gas emissions have increased by over one
they connect with each other to balance their     third since 1992 and keep rising. Acute conflicts
operational needs (for instance, the energy       of interest among industrialized, emerging and

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